After the
worst start to a year ever, the stock market surged to new highs in 2016.
All the major indexes rebounded to records and defied the doomsday
forecasts that preceded events like Brexit and President-elect Donald
Trump's election.
For next year, no strategist at a top Wall Street firm forecasts that
the bull market will end. Many expect America's largest companies to
return to earnings growth, and to see
other benefits from Trump's
promises to cut taxes and ease regulations.
Near this time last year, the median year-end forecast for the
benchmark S&P 500 index was 2,178 according to Bloomberg. On
Thursday, December 8, the S&P 500 closed at 2,246.19, up 12% for the
year, and higher than the forecast from the
most bullish strategist, Fundstrat's Tom Lee.
Here's what some of the pros are saying about 2017:
2,300* — Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Comment: "2017 may be the least certain in years,
with higher-than-usual risks and a binary set of outcomes that have
dramatically contrasting results: euphoria or fizzle, significantly
higher or lower than the base case," said Savita Subramanian.
"As the likelihood of pro-growth policies waxes and wanes in the
coming months, we see potential for big market swings. Risk/reward will
be more important than absolute targets."
*2017 could be a binary year where the market falls to 1,600 in the
bear case and rises to 2,700 in the bull case, Subramanian said.
2,300* — Credit Suisse
Comment: "The key positive for 2017, in our
judgment, is that investors are overweight deflation hedges (i.e. bonds)
relative to inflation hedges (equities) at a time when policy makers
are moving away from NIRP towards fiscal stimulus, and inflation
expectations are set to continue rising," said Andrew Garthwaite.
"However, we see a down market in H2 2017, hence our year-end 2017
target of 2,300. The second half challenges include the potential
negative impact of US bond yields above 3% (3% being the CS view for
end-2017); the growing pricing power of US labor squeezing profit
margins; and the risk of China refocusing on reform rather than
pro-growth policies. We continue to prefer equities to both bonds and
gold."
*2,350 mid-year
2,300 — UBS
Comment: "Despite the potential for more volatility,
we expect the Bull to celebrate its 8th birthday in March 2017," Julian
Emanuel said.
"No recession is in sight, for now. However, the old saying 'Three
Steps and a Stumble' could put stocks to the test when the Fed hikes
again after a hike this December."
2,300 — Goldman
Comment: "'Hope' is potential for positive EPS
revisions from lower corporate taxes, repatriation of overseas cash,
less regulation, and fiscal stimulus," David Kostin said.
"'Fear' is risk that budget deficit limits tax reform, rising
inflation prompts Fed to tighten steadily, and bond yields continue to
rise."
2,325 — Citi
Comment: "Our PULSE framework is neutral on 4 fronts
(unanticipated, earnings, sentiment and liquidity), and is still
positive on valuation," said Tobias Levkovich.
"The normalized earnings yield gap analysis stands at 1.57 standard
deviations below its 40-year average, yielding an 87% chance of higher
markets in a year’s time... after essentially achieving our mid-2016
S&P 500 target of 2,100, we see possible late year softness given a
year-end 2016 objective of 2,150... additional gains are reasonable in
the next 12-15 months, but not outstanding; our mid-2017 target is 2,250
while our preliminary 2017 year-end target is 2,325."
2,325 — Jefferies
Comment: "A regime shift occurred almost overnight following Trump’s victory," Sean Darby said.
"Trumponomics: fiscal relaxation and protectionism are both
inflationary and US dollar bullish. The unfolding of Trump’s policies
will occur at a time when wages are increasing. Buy the consumer.
Equities are benefiting from the unwinding of the momentum trade in
fixed income and reach for yield, but a strong dollar will act as a
ceiling for earnings and will tighten liquidity conditions."
2,350 — BMO
Comment: "We believe the S&P 500 has a very good
chance of delivering at least high-single-digit percentage gains in
2017 as the market transitions from P/E to EPS-driven gains and copes
with the positives and negatives associated with a Trump administration
and the changing policy dynamics it generates," said Brian Belski.
"That being said, bouts of increased doubt and rhetoric are sure to
generate consternation, with volatility representing a constant theme.
However, the resiliency of US companies has proven itself time and time
again throughout this bull market, and investors should avoid trying to
time the market, in our view."
2,350 — Deutsche Bank
Comment: "The S&P 500 should be 2250 by inauguration and 2300 upon a sizable corporate tax rate cut," said David Bianco.
"The corporate tax rate is likely cut in the first 100 days and other
proposed major corporate tax code changes deferred. The time in-between
inauguration and tax cuts is risky; waiting for stimulus when rates and
FX markets reflect such will cap stocks."
2,400 — JPMorgan
Comment: "We think that, fundamentally, risks for
equities in 2017 are likely to be higher compared to this year," said
Dubravko Lakos-Bujas.
"Prospects of pro-growth policy reforms under the new US
administration are main sources of upside risk to our targets, but both
the passage and efficacy of these measures are far from certain at this
moment. Stronger USD and higher rates are main sources of downside risk
for corporate earnings and the equity multiple, especially if those
trends are not supported by stronger growth expectations.
Source: JPMorgan
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