One month ago, when observing the record low vol coupled with record high stock prices, we reported a stunning statistic: central banks have bought $1 trillion of financial assets just
in the first four months of 2017, which amounts to $3.6 trillion
annualized, "the largest CB buying on record" according to Bank of
America. Today BofA's Michael Hartnett provides an update on this
number: he writes that central bank balance sheets have now grown to a
record $15.1 trillion, up from $14.6 trillion in late April, and says
that "central banks have bought a record $1.5 trillion in assets YTD."
The latest data means that contrary to previous calculations, central banks are now injecting a record $300 billion in liquidity per month, above the $200 billion which Deutsche Bank recently warned is a "red-line" indicator for risk assets.
This, as we said last month, is why "nothing else matters" in a market addicted to what is now record central bank generosity.
What
is ironic is that this unprecedented central bank buying spree comes as
a time when the global economy is supposedly in a "coordinated
recovery" and when the Fed, and more recently, the ECB and BOJ have been
warning about tighter monetary conditions, raising rates and tapering
QE.
To this, Hartnett responds that "Fed hikes next week & "rhetorical tightening" by ECB & BoJ beginning, but we fear too late to prevent Icarus" by which he means that no matter what central banks do, a final blow-off top in the stock market is imminent.
He is probably correct, especially when looking at the "big 5" tech stocks, whose performance has an uncanny correlation with the size of the consolidated central bank balance sheet.
The latest data means that contrary to previous calculations, central banks are now injecting a record $300 billion in liquidity per month, above the $200 billion which Deutsche Bank recently warned is a "red-line" indicator for risk assets.
This, as we said last month, is why "nothing else matters" in a market addicted to what is now record central bank generosity.
To this, Hartnett responds that "Fed hikes next week & "rhetorical tightening" by ECB & BoJ beginning, but we fear too late to prevent Icarus" by which he means that no matter what central banks do, a final blow-off top in the stock market is imminent.
He is probably correct, especially when looking at the "big 5" tech stocks, whose performance has an uncanny correlation with the size of the consolidated central bank balance sheet.
No comments:
Post a Comment