"Contemplating My Own Insanity - Again."

 http://www.safehaven.com/article/36809/recession-is-on-the-way-questioning-ones-sanity-beat-the-crowd-panic-now

Contemplating My Own Insanity - Again

With the above backdrop, Albert Edwards at Society General had me laughing at his own personal assessment in his Global Strategy Weekly Email Update (no link available).
He titled his research "Contemplating My Own Insanity - Again." Here are a few snips.

With equity markets galore hitting record high s clearly I must be missing something big! We are at that stage in the cycle where I begin to doubt my own sanity. I've been here before though and know full well how this story ends and it doesn't involve me being detained in a mental health establishment (usually). The downturn in US profits is accelerating and it is not just an energy or US dollar phenomenon - a broad swathe of US economic data has disappointed in February. One of the positive surprises, payrolls, is a lagging indicator. The $64,000 question is not if, but rather when will investors realize what is going on?
My colleague Kit Juke summed it up nicely in his morning note "Whatever the Fed does, they will not risk the economic recovery. That bias is why rates won't get anywhere near 'neutral' before they peak. The economic cycle will be brought down by asset bubbles bursting long before 'tight' policy has any effect. Lessons were learned from the Global Financial Crisis, but not that one."
Investors are transfixed instead by the Fed and when it will tighten rates and can't see the wood for the trees. The Fed's focus on payrolls, a lagging indicator, is most perplexing but not unusual at this stage in the cycle. The reality is that the vast bulk of economic, as well as earnings, data (even outside the energy sector), has been simply dreadful.

Current Rate of Profit Deterioration

February US Data Above and Below Expectations

If you believe profit deterioration is a solely or even mostly related to the collapse in oil prices you are mistaken.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/36809/recession-is-on-the-way-questioning-ones-sanity-beat-the-crowd-panic-now