"The current dislocation indicates that holders of gold futures have begun demanding delivery. But because of the large amount of leverage in the market, participants are not able to deliver on their obligations."
Reuters, Gold Futures Hiccup Indicates Demand Outpacing Supplyhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/19/derivatives-gold-idUSL1N0FP1CB20130719
A dislocation in the gold futures market indicating that demand for physical delivery of the metal is now far outweighing supply has intensified in recent weeks, increasing concern in the market that the change may not be a momentary blip and participants may have become over-leveraged.
Gold went into backwardation in comparison to the three-month futures contract in early January, meaning the spot price rose above the short-dated future contact. Now that process looks set to creep out the futures curve to longer-dated maturities, signalling some cause for alarm.
"The fact that has remained and widened ... indicates that the physical market has tightened up substantially, a postulation that is corroborated by the growing premiums being paid ... and the ongoing wholesale delays in the delivery of substantial bullion tonnage," wrote Ned Naylor-Leyland of Cheviot Asset Management in a report this month.
"The bullion banks want to get gold back into contango and stop the movement of the remaining inventories by shaking the market lower, using paper leverage to do so," wrote Naylor-Leyland.
"It hasn't worked, indeed more and more investors are now seeking allocation, delivery and physical metal at the expense of synthetic products offered by the banks. The squeeze we have been waiting for is closing in, it is always darkest just before dawn."
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