http://www.businessinsider.com/second-worst-time-to-own-stocks-2014-11
This stock market is now the second most overbought, the second most overvalued and most most over-leveraged market in history.
Overbought: My friend, Dana Lyons,
recently posted the chart below which shows the S&P 500 in relation
to its exponential regression trend line. The only other time in
history stocks were this “overbought” (traded more than 90% above the
long-term trend) was back at the height of the internet bubble.
JLFMI
Overvalued: A glance at the chart below, of
Warren Buffett’s favorite valuation metric (total market
capitalization-to-GDP), clearly shows that there was also only one other
time in history when stocks were priced so dearly as they are today:
1999.
FRED
Over-leveraged: Finally, investors have never
been so highly levered to equity prices. Even 1999 can’t compare with
today’s aggressiveness. As the next chart shows, net free credits (cash
minus margin debt) in brokerage accounts have never traveled so far into
negative territory as they have now.
dshort.com
I think it’s pretty pointless to debate whether this
constitutes another “bubble” or not. Label it however you want. But it’s
hard to deny that this is, at the very least, the second most
unattractive time to own equities in history. In other words, this is
probably the second worst time in history to own stocks.
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