Monday, November 28, 2016

Donald Trump on the stock market: 'It's all a big bubble'

 Donald Trump on the stock market: 'It's all a big bubble'

The low interest rate environment fostered by the Federal Reserve that has coincided with a 227 percent market gain since the financial crisis lows.

"If rates go up, you're going to see something that's not pretty," the billionaire businessman told Fox News during a Tuesday morning phone interview. "It's all a big bubble."

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/09/donald-trump-on-the-stock-market-its-all-a-big-bubble.html

 

Buffett’s Cash Soars to Record as Operating Profit Edges Higher

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-05/buffett-s-cash-soars-to-record-as-operating-profit-edges-higher


  • Cash pile stood at $84.8 billion at end of September
  • Precision Castparts, Duracell acquisitions boost results
His Berkshire Hathaway Inc. had almost $85 billion on its books as of Sept. 30, according to a regulatory filing late Friday. That’s up from the previous record of $72.7 billion on June 30.

 .
Operating earnings climbed 6.6 percent in the third quarter to $4.85 billion, or $2,951 a share, driven by contributions from manufacturing businesses. That missed the average $3,058-a-share estimate of three analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Net income fell 24 percent from a year earlier when Buffett booked a large gain on an investment in Kraft Heinz Co.
This year, he’s added to his company’s stable of subsidiaries, buying battery-maker Duracell and Precision Castparts Corp., a global supplier to the aerospace industry. The latter was one of his biggest acquisitions ever.
Those two businesses pushed profit at the manufacturing, service and retail segment up 45 percent to $1.7 billion in the quarter. Aggregate earnings fell for the rest of the companies in the group, including chemical unit Lubrizol and toolmaker Iscar, according to the filing.

Geico, BNSF

Some of Berkshire’s other large businesses also struggled in the quarter. The insurance group reported that underwriting profit slipped 34 percent to $272 million as results worsened at the company’s namesake reinsurance business and auto insurer Geico. Income from Berkshire’s railroad, BNSF, fell about 12 percent to $1.02 billion on reduced demand for coal and petroleum products.
One bright spot was the utility unit, Berkshire Hathaway Energy. It contributed $932 million in profit, compared with $786 million a year earlier, on higher electric rates and increased wholesale volumes. The business operates electric grids in the U.K., natural gas pipelines that stretch from the Great Lakes to Texas and power companies in states including Iowa and Nevada.
Part of the increase in cash during the quarter came from the sale of preferred stock in chewing-gum maker Wrigley. The transaction was completed in late September and drove a gain of $2.35 billion on derivatives and investments. A year earlier, Berkshire recorded a gain of $4.88 billion in that area because of an increase in the value of its investment in Kraft Heinz.

Reinsurance Risk

Berkshire has said such marks are “often meaningless” and don’t help in understanding the company’s performance. Nonetheless, they were responsible for the drop in net income, which declined to $7.2 billion in the third quarter from $9.43 billion a year earlier.
Not all the $84.8 billion in cash at Berkshire is available for investments. Buffett has said that he wants to keep a cushion of at least $20 billion. His company is a major seller of reinsurance, a business that requires large payouts after natural disasters and other catastrophic events.
One of the best ways for Buffett to deploy the cash pile could be to purchase his company’s stock, said Jim Shanahan, an analyst at Edward Jones. Buffett is authorized to buy back shares for less than 120 percent of book value, but the company could adjust that limit.
As of Sept. 30, book value stood at $163,783 per share. Berkshire’s Class A stock closed Friday at $214,545, or about 31 percent more than the measure of assets minus liabilities.
Even at that level, the stock “seems really cheap to me,” Shanahan said. “There’s a lot of upside here in terms of earnings.”

Friday, November 25, 2016

Four Reasons Why Gold Is A Bad Investment

Four Reasons Why Gold Is A Bad Investment 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnwasik/2016/11/18/four-reasons-why-gold-is-a-bad-investment/#19ebcf8e43ee

This blog is about financial deceptions, swindles and costly untruths.
 
Before you gold trolls start hurling cyber-insults at me, I have to confess upfront that I don’t mind if anyone owns gold. I have a few coins myself.

But I don’t think gold is a good investment. There are lot of people getting scammed into buying it in various forms. With the recent presidential election, the fear factor is once again in play.

My reasons for not seeing gold as an investment are straightforward. Unlike a bond, the metal pays no interest. There is no dividend. It may not protect you against the worst forms of inflation, which are often in health care. And there is no implicit guarantee that it will appreciate in value.
I know this describes most investments. But at least if you invest in a basket of major stocks, although not guaranteed, you are likely to receive dividend payments. If you buy gold bullion or coins, this is not the case.

And I also acknowledge that investors are wary about paper currencies. Sure, they are based on the faith and credit of a government, but U.S. Treasuries Securities have never been defaulted upon in anyone’s lifetime. If that were to happen, the entire world financial system would collapse — and gold wouldn’t do you much good.

Gold’s value, for the most part, is based on fear. Investors buy it when they think currencies are shaky or whole economies are wobbly. But ever since the disastrous crash of 2008 — with Europe and the U.S. struggling to recover — gold has been a poor investment.

In a low-inflation environment, gold and other metals are not going to help you. The cost of money and demand for credit is low, keeping interest rates in check. For most of us concerned about the cost of living, these are pretty good times.
Yet gold bugs peddle uncertainty. They assure you that you can make money because times are bad and are getting worse. Although you can always make an argument for that, the opposite is true. The U.S. and Europe are still recovering. Credit is tight, but not expensive. Corporations are still making profits.
This fear over the economic future fuels numerous gold scams. Dealers may be pushing coins, bullion or stocks in mining companies.
Brokers love these vehicles because they make money on commissions. The more products they sell, the richer they become, particularly when investor sentiment is skittish. They charge more for gold-based products than the actual price of the metal.
If you choose to invest in gold, be smart about it. Here are some buying guidelines from the Federal Trade Commission:
– “If you are buying bullion coins or collectible coins, ask for the coin’s `melt value’ – the basic intrinsic bullion value of a coin if it were melted and sold. The melt value for virtually all bullion coins and collectible coins is widely available.
– Get an independent appraisal of the specific gold product you’re considering. The seller’s appraisal might be inflated.
– Consider additional costs. You may need to buy insurance, a safe deposit box, or rent offsite storage to safeguard bullion. These costs will cut into the investment potential of bullion.
– Some sellers deliver bullion or bars to a secured facility rather than to a consumer. When you buy metals without taking delivery, take extra precautions to ensure that the metal exists, is of the quality described, and is properly insured.
– Walk away from sales pitches that minimize risk or sales representatives who claim that risk disclosures are mere formalities. Reputable sales reps are upfront about the risk of particular investments. Always get a receipt for your transaction.
– Refuse to “act now.” Any sales pitch that urges you to buy immediately is a signal to walk away and hold on to your money.”

 

Friday, November 11, 2016

No customers': Indians react to currency ban

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-37921672
Indians are scrambling to adjust to life without 500 and 1,000 rupee notes after they were removed from public circulation in a shock announcement on Tuesday night. The move is part of a crackdown on corruption and illegal cash holdings.

My child has cancer, we can't buy food'

Mahavir Singh, sitting outside Delhi's famed All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), is the picture of despair. The farm labourer has travelled nearly 80km (49 miles) from his village with his mother and his 10-year-old son Mohit Kumar, who suffers from blood cancer. The trio had brought 5,000 rupees for the trip to cover food, travel and lodging expenses, only to find that most of their money is now effectively worthless.
"We are facing major problems. Auto-rickshaw drivers and hotels are not accepting 500 rupee notes and that is all I have. It's been such a struggle to feed my family, and my son will have to sleep on the pavement tonight," he told the BBC.
His mother, Pushpa Devi, says they have already spent all the 100 rupee notes they have. "I have heard that there are some people who come here every evening to distribute food as charity, so I am hoping we can have that for dinner.

Sameer, who owns a roadside clothes shop along Mumbai's busy Linking road, says that he has had next to no customers all day.
"You can see, there is no one here," he says. "Those who do come in try purchasing a cheap item with their 500 and 1,000 rupee notes and then asking us for change since the ATMs are shut. But we are not accepting those notes.
"In the long run this is going to affect our business badly as we only deal in cash.
Kalamuddin, a rickshaw puller in old Delhi, is angry. "I am left with all this," he says, animatedly waving 500 rupee notes around. "What will I do? I don't have any identity card or even a bank account. It's my hard-earned money. You tell me how I can prove that this is not black money."
Mr Kalamuddin's problem is likely to be a common one in India, which is overwhelmingly a cash economy and where many daily-wage labourers do not possess formal identification or bank accounts.

Ranchor, who owns a convenience store in western Mumbai, says he is accepting 500 and 1,000 rupee notes from customers desperate to rid themselves of the now-banned currency.
"But we are not giving any change back. They have to purchase goods that are worth that amount. We will go to the bank and change those notes.
"This has benefited us because people are coming here as they can't go to the smaller local shops. This is a great move by the prime minister. It is time to crack down on black money."

Neeraj Bharadwaj, a jeweller in old Delhi, agrees it is important to bring "black money" back into the economy. But he says he is not sure about the way it was done.
"What are we going to do for the next few weeks? Our business is mainly during the wedding season, which starts in a few days. But now how are people going to buy gold and silver? They can only convert 4,000 rupees a day and that's not enough when you have a wedding to fund," he says.
"I pay all my taxes but I still mainly deal in cash. Now I am left with thousands of rupees worth of valueless notes. What am I going to do with them? Even if I change 4,000 rupees a day every day, it will take me months to convert all my money. I am educated and know what to do, but imagine the plight of a vegetable seller or milkman?"

Chiara Rossi, an Italian national who has been in India for six weeks, said the fiscal move had left her at a loss as to what to do with her foreign exchange.
"This is India and anything can happen but this is not fair. The government should have thought about tourists. I have 5,000 rupees and I am leaving India this evening. I don't know what to do with my money. It's frustrating."




Tuesday, November 1, 2016

The Dying Business of Picking Stocks





Passive investing has become investors’ default, driving billions into funds that track indexes. It’s transforming Wall Street, corporate boardrooms and the life of the neighborhood broker

Investors are giving up on stock picking.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-dying-business-of-picking-stocks-1476714749


Pension funds, endowments, 401(k) retirement plans and retail investors are flooding into passive investment funds, which run on autopilot by tracking an index. Stock pickers, archetypes of 20th century Wall Street, are being pushed to the margins.