We measured every bull cycle of gold stocks and found there have been eight distinct upcycles since 1975.
We also discovered something exciting: Only one was less than a double. (A second was 99.9%.)
Even more enticing is that the biggest one—a 601.5% advance in the early 2000s—occurred just after a prolonged bear market.
And our current bear market is longer than that one.
look what those gains would mean to GDX, the Gold Miners ETF (based on the June 1 price).
| Gold ETF |
Current Share Price |
1976– 1980 |
1982– 1983 |
1986– 1987 |
1989– 1990 |
1993– 1994 |
2000– 2003 |
2005– 2008 |
2008– 2011 |
| 554.2% | 205.1% | 141.8% | 51.5% | 99.9% | 601.5% | 206.4% | 272.5% | ||
| GDX | $19.49 | $127.51 | $59.45 | $47.14 | $29.53 | $38.96 | $136.72 | $59.72 | $72.60 |
Keep two things in mind about this table:
- The percentage gain from each past bull market is calculated using an index. The stronger companies will perform better than a static ETF.
- It’s not unreasonable to think that the gains in the next bull market will be similar to some of the higher returns listed above. That’s because stocks will be rising from the depths of one of the more severe bear markets.
